Average True Range indicator

What is the ATR indicator?

It was developed by J. Welles Wilder and was first mentioned in his book, New Concepts in Technical Analysis Systems (in 1978).

 

The true average range (ATR) indicator is a volatility indicator that measures how much the price of an asset has been moving over some time, and how volatile the asset has been. An expanding ATR indicates increased volatility in the market, with the range of each bar getting larger. A low ATR value indicates a series of periods with small ranges (quiet days). As shown in figure (1)

 

ATR indicator

Figure 1

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How ATR is Calculated?

ATR = (Previous ATR * (n - 1) + TR) / n

 

Where:

 

ATR = Average True Range

 

n = number of periods or bars

 

TR = True Range

Average true range

Figure 2

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The True Range for today is the greatest of the following:

 

  • Today's high minus today's low.
  • The absolute value of today's high minus yesterday's close.
  • The absolute value of today's low minus yesterday's close. as shown in figure (2)

How to use ATR indicator?

ATR is very useful for determining take profit and stop loss. If you are a day trader, you should place your take profit around the ATR value and place your stop loss higher than the ATR value. ATR is based on the True Range, which uses absolute price changes, so ATR reflects volatility as an absolute level. In other words, ATR is not shown as a percentage of the current close.

How to use ATR as a Day trader?

If your strategy triggers an entry signal but the today range exceeds the current ATR, this signal should be ignored. And whenever the price closes more than one ATR, it is a good time to take some profit.

ATR as trailing stop.

ATR could be used as trailing stop by k * ATR (14) as k can be 2 or 3 based on the trader risk management plan. Closing a long position becomes a safe bet whenever the price closes more than one ATR because the stock is likely to enter a trading range or reverse direction at this point.

Chandelier Exit indicator

Chandelier Exit (CE) is a volatility-based indicator identifying stop-loss exit points for long and short trading positions. It is based on the Average True Range (ATR) indicator. During lower volatility trading sessions, traders set small trailing stop losses. The possibility of a trend reversal is low during low volatility trading sessions. However, in higher volatility trading, traders set a larger trailing loss in order to protect themselves from choppy trading. Traders use Chandelier Exit as a trailing stop-loss and as a way of protecting themselves from losses resulting from trend reversals.

 

The formulas for the two lines are as follows:

 

Chandelier Exit Long: n-day Highest High – ATR (n) x Multiplier

 

Chandelier Exit Short: n-day Lowest Low + ATR (n) x Multiplier

 

Charles Le Beau recommended setting an input period of 22 and a multiple of 3 times the Average True Range, as shown in figure (3)

 

Chandelier Exit indicator

Figure 3

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Long Positions

During long positions, Chandelier Exit indicator will move below prices, but sometimes, during low volatility, sideways could lead to some false exits, as shown in figure (4).

 

Long positions

Figure 4

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Short Positions

During short positions, Chandelier Exit indicator will move above prices, but sometimes, during low volatility, sideways could lead to some false exits, as shown in figure (5).

 

Short positions

Figure 5

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Limitations of the Average True Range (ATR).

  1. ATR is a subjective measure; there is no single ATR value that will tell you with any certainty that a trend is about to reverse or not. Instead, ATR readings should always be compared against earlier readings to get a feel of a trend's strength or weakness.
  2. ATR only measures volatility and not the direction of an asset's price.

 

The content published above has been prepared by CFI for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. The information provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it, and is not held out as independent investment research and may have been acted upon by persons connected with CFI. Market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however, CFI makes no guarantee of its accuracy or completeness, and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients.

 

How To Trade With Stochastic?

Introduction

Technical Indicators are mathematical formulas calculated from price data to provide traders with some information that cannot be easily shown from the pure prices like momentum and volatility. Indicators have two major classifications trend-following, like Moving averages and Bollinger Bands, and Oscillators like RSI and Stochastics.

What is a Stochastic?

A stochastic oscillator is a momentum indicator comparing the current closing price of a security to a range of its prices over a certain period. This is invented by George C. Lane. Stochastic has two types Fast stochastics and slow stochastics.

 

It oscillates around level 50 between 0 and 100. As above 20 called an overbought area And below 20 is called an oversold area. It consists of two lines, K% and D%, as shown in Figure (1)

 

Overbought area and an oversold area

Figure 1

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Types of Stochastic

1-Fast Stochastics.

 

%K = (Current Close – Lowest of Range) / (Highest of Range – Lowest of Range) Range is how many time periods that stochastics is calculated over

 

D% = SMA (3) of %K

 

2-Slow Stochastics

 

%K = D% (of the Fast Stochastics)

 

D% = SMA (3) of %K

 

Stochastic gives a buy signal when there is a positive crossover between the k% line and D% line and sell signals when there is a negative crossover between the k% line and D% line.

 

Trading with Stochastic indicator

You cannot use the Stochastic signal alone without considering trend analysis because every market phase has a different trading characteristic. In an uptrend, using Stochastic to time the buy signal will always be the best Stochastic trading strategy, and in a downtrend, using Stochastic to time the short signal.

How to trade using the Stochastic indicator in an uptrend?

During an uptrend, buyers always have control over price movement, and the best trades are always around the end of the downward retracement, where the best risk-reward ratio is present.

 

In a strong uptrend Stochastic indicator may not reach the oversold area, so when Stochastic has a positive crossover in the zone, 40:20 could be a buying signal, as shown in figure (2)

 

1-In a Normal uptrend Stochastic indicator may reach an oversold area below 20, so the crossover could be a buying signal, as shown in figure (3)

 

When Stochastic moves above level 80, what we call an overbought area in the uptrend does not mean it is an excellent time to sell it means buyers are aggressive, and that might lead to some relief in the price movement due to some profit-taking. So, when Stochastic bounced down from overbought, it is an excellent time to take profits for long positions, not to initiate a new short position.

 

Stochastic indicator in a strong uptrend

Figure 2

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Stochastic indicator in a normal uptrend

Figure 3

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How to trade using Stochastic indicator in Downtrend?

During a downtrend, sellers always have control over price movement, and the best trades are always around the end of the upward retracement, where the best risk-reward ratio is present.

 

1-In a strong downtrend Stochastic indicator may not reach the overbought area, so when Stochastic has a negative crossover in the zone, 60:70 could be a selling signal, as shown in figure (4)

 

2-In a Normal downtrend Stochastic indicator may reach an overbought area above 80, so the crossover could be a sell signal, as shown in figure (5)

 

When Stochastic moves below level 20, what we call an oversold area in the downtrend does not mean it is a good time to buy. It means sellers are aggressive, which might lead to some relief in the price movement due to some profit-taking. So, when Stochastic bounced up from oversold, it is a good time to take profits for short positions, not to initiate a long position.

 

Stochastic indicator in a strong downtrend

Figure 4

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Stochastic indicator in a normal downtrend

Figure 5

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How to trade using a Stochastic indicator in Sideways Movements?

Sideways movement occurs when there is an equilibrium between buyers and sellers, so when RSI bounce down around the overbought area could be a sell signal, and when RSI bounced up around the oversold area, it could be used as a buy signal, as shown in figure (6)

 

Sideways movement on the chart

Figure 6

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What is a divergence using Stochastic?

Most of the time, the Stochastic indicator follows the price movement, but when it does not, we call this a Divergence which indicates a weakness in the current trend.

 

There are two types of divergence:

Positive Divergence

 

It occurs when price make a lower low, but the indicator makes a higher low, it means the current seller exhausted and loses momentum, and a correction might occur, as shown in figure (7)

 

Positive divergence

Figure 7

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Negative Divergence

 

It occurs when price make a higher high, but the indicator makes a lower high, which means the current buyer is exhausted and loses momentum, and correction might occur, as shown in figure (8).

 

Negative divergence

Figure 8

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Trading with Stochastic Divergence

A divergence signal is a mean reversion because the trader takes a position opposite to the current trend. For example, when a negative divergence appears in an uptrend short position could be taken, and when a positive divergence appear long position could be taken because divergence is an indication of a short-term correction. Divergence signals have a 1:1 risk-reward ratio but are highly likely.

Positive Divergence Trade

 

When Stochastic shows a positive divergence, wait for any candlestick reversal pattern as a buy signal with stop loss below the candlestick pattern and using BB moving average or 50% retracement level as a target, as shown in figure(10)

 

Stochastic shows a positive divergence

Figure 10

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A Negative Divergence Trade

 

When Stochastic shows a negative divergence, wait for any candlestick reversal pattern as a sell signal with stop loss above the candlestick pattern and using BB moving average or 50% retracement level as a target, as shown in figure (11)

 

Stochastic shows a negative divergence

Figure 11

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How to combine Stochastic and MACD indicator?

 

We can combine stochastic and MACD to improve the quality of trading signals by using stochastic for entries and MACD as signals filters.

 

  1. When Stochastic moves above level 80, that indicates a strong uptrend
  2. When stochastics bounces down below level 80, that indicates a downward correction is beginning.
  3. When stochastics has a positive crossover around level 50, that means that correction is over
  4. MACD will be used as a trending indicator, so buying signals will be executed only when the MACD line moves above the signal line

 

As shown in the figure (12), an example of using Stochastic with MACD to improve the quality of buy signal.

Using Stochastic with MACD

Figure 12

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Conclusion

Stochastic is a very useful technical indicator, but it is a secondary indicator that is not used isolated from the direction of prices as the trend of prices is the main factor in order to take the signals of the indicator or ignore them. It can by use to give a trend following signals or a mean reversion signal.

 

The content published above has been prepared by CFI for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. The information provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it, and is not held out as independent investment research and may have been acted upon by persons connected with CFI. Market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however, CFI makes no guarantee of its accuracy or completeness, and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients.

Multiple time frame analysis

Market Moves in Cycle

Prices move in different cycles, whether long term, medium-term or even short-term cycles. These cycles reflect the long-term, medium-term, and short-term trading signals, as shown in figure (1).

 

The MWC and LWC are both sub-waves of the HWC and are regarded as wave cycles of lower degrees. A trader must be able to visualize price cycles on the chart. Without knowing which wave cycle is being traded, any of the following scenarios may result:

 

  • Inability to select consistent breakout levels
  • Inability to select effective stop-loss levels
  • Inability to apply effective stop sizing
  • Inability to distinguish between trend and consolidation mode
  • Inability to determine the direction of the predominant trend

 

Wave cycles - higher, medium, lower

Figure 1

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What is a Multiple time frame analysis?

Multiple time periods allow the trader to time entries into the market using very short-term data while watching the longer-term picture for the daily or weekly trend. Because it is agreed that most trends are best identified over a longer period, and choosing the specific entry point requires a much faster response, the combination of two or even three-time intervals is very sensible when each one targets a specific purpose. If the trend can be identified profitably, then the trader can filter or select short-term trades that have a better-than-average chance of becoming winners.

 

How to use a Multiple time frame analysis

  1. Identify the main timeframe. This time frame is dependable on the trader’s lifestyle and when he can watch the market, such as the 4H chart.
  2. Identify the higher time frame to determine the higher cycle trend, such as the daily chart
  3. Identify a shorter timeframe for entries such as 1H or 30M chart

A trader can choose two timeframes at least. Higher timeframe for trend analysis and lower timeframe for execution. The relation between every time frame of the cycle is 4 to 6

 

EURUSD Daily and 1 H Chart example

 

EURUSD in the Daily chart breakout through horizontal resistance and begin an upward trend, as shown in figure (2). Traders should use a 1H chart for timing the entry-level with smaller stop loss, as shown in figure (3)

 

EUR/USD upward trend

Figure 2

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EUR/USD 1H chart

Figure 3

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EURUSD Daily and 1 H Chart example

 

EURUSD in the Daily chart moved in an uptrend, then bounced down around level 1.1425 and began a short-term correction toward EMA 20, as shown in figure (4). EURUSD in the 1H chart moves in a downtrend, so traders should wait for a reversal for entry, as shown in figure (5).

EUR/USD Daily and 1H chart

Figure 4,5

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GBPUSD Daily and 1H chart

 

GBPUSD in daily chart moves in an uptrend then bounced down to correct, and it is now trading around 61.8% Fibonacci retracement as shown in figure (6) GBPUSD in the hourly chart moves in a downtrend, and when the trend reverses to an uptrend, that will be the entry-level, as shown in figure (7).

GBP/USD in daily chart

Figure 6

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GBP/USD in the hourly chart

Figure 7

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ELDER’S TRIPLE-SCREEN TRADING SYSTEM

It combines trend-following and oscillators using three-time frames, each serving a specific purpose. The oscillators are normally associated with timing, while the trend determines the direction of the trade. Dr. Elder has observed that each time frame relates to the next by a factor of 5. That is, if you are using daily data as the middle time period, then the shorter interval will be divided into five parts, bars of 1 to 2 hours in length, and the longer period will be five days or one week

 

Screen 1: The Major Move (Lowest Frequency Data)

 

The long-term view is used to see the market tide, a clear perspective of the major market trend, or sometimes the lack of trend. Weekly or Daily data is used. The Triple Screen approach uses the slope of the weekly MACD, where the histogram that represents the MACD value is very smooth, equivalent to, for example, a 13-week exponential. The trend is up when the MACD bar, or 13-week exponential value, is higher than the previous week; the trend is down when this week’s value is lower.

 

Screen 2: The Intermediate Move (Middle-Frequency Data)

 

The oscillator applied in Screen 2 (the second panel) identifies the period in which we would trade. Again, the specific oscillator is not as important as the time frame and the ability to identify market waves in the major moves of Screen 1. A stochastic can also be used

 

Screen 3: Timing (High-Frequency Data)

 

The final screen is for the fastest response, primarily identifying intraday breakouts. a new buy signal occurs when the high of the hourly bar moves above the highest high of the hourly bars of the previous day

 

EURUSD ELDER’S TRIPLE-SCREEN TRADING SYSTEM example

 

Screen 1: Daily chart with MACD histogram shows a downtrend

 

Screen 2: 4H chart with stochastics in the overbought area shows a good time for the sell signal, as shown in figure (8).

 

Screen 3: 30M chart shows a breakdown entry with stop loss above the high, as shown in figure (9).

4H chart with stochastics

Figure 8

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30M chart

Figure 9

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Conclusion

Using multiple time-frame analyses can drastically improve the odds of making a successful trade and improve the risk to reward ratio by taking entries and stop loss in lower time frames and targets with higher time frames.

 

The content published above has been prepared by CFI for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. The information provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it, and is not held out as independent investment research and may have been acted upon by persons connected with CFI. Market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however, CFI makes no guarantee of its accuracy or completeness, and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients.

Fibonacci extensions

How To Trade With The Trend

What is a trend?

Despite only showing up 30% of the time, compared to ranging conditions prevailing around 70% of trading sessions, trend trading is a popular and easy to get into strategy that can give you an edge if approached properly.

 

Trends manifest themselves as a continuously rising or declining price of a trading product. Trends are not linear and prices will not go from point A to point B in one go. Instead, they include ups and downs, regardless of the ultimate direction. Imagine a set of stairs, and you are going up. Each step is a bit higher then there is a small pause before reaching the step after it. It’s the same way with trends as price goes higher then pauses for a bit before continuing even higher. The opposite is true for downtrends.

 

Trends can be seen on very small timeframes but can also happen over very long periods including days, weeks, months, and even years. Within trends, price action can include opposing shorter trend trends as well as ranging conditions that happen during more shallow corrections and pauses.

Identifying a trend

The idea of identifying a trend is fairly (Figure1,2) straightforward and should be achievable by simply looking at a chart. Some traders prefer using indicators or traditionally tracking prices on a piece of paper but given the technology available out there, a chart should suffice when trying to identify if a market is ranging or trending.

Trading chart

Figure 1

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Identifying trend on the chart

Figure 2

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How to trade with the trend

There are different ways in which a trader can trade with the trend. Some may look to get in on a break of major support/resistance which could mark the start of a new trend while others may prefer looking for an established trend and getting in on the correction. Whichever method you decide to use, remember that there are a few things that can help you achieve greater efficiency.

 

There is a saying in the financial markets that says “The Trend is Your Friend”. This saying is widely spread across traders and it states the fact that you have to look for opportunities only that coincide with the prevailing trend direction.

For example, if the overall trend seems to be to the upside, hence a trader should try to identify long signals and confirmations that confirm the upside movement, and whenever the trend is directed downwards (Figure 3), then the trader should try to look for short signals.

 

However, despite being true most of the time, sometimes the market provides us with signals that can work in the correction movements that are usually against the original trend. This is where the experience of the trader is on a test, whereby decisions should be made strictly based on studied strategies.

 

We have multiple ways of trading trends as stated before, either through entering with a trend that was previously identified or through trading the beginning of new trends.

Trend directed downwards

Figure 3

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Indicators

Trading Indicators are essential tools to analyze price movements based on their historical activity to try and forecast future movements.

 

Usually, in analyzing indicators, traders mistake forecasts with predictions and tend to take decisions solely based on what the indicators are showing.

 

However, they should be used as a combination that generates signals and confirmations.

 

Indicators are mathematically created equations that are derived from historical price movements and price data.

 

We have thousands of trading indicators that are organized under specified categories based on the nature of the equation.

 

The most known categories are:

 

  • Trend indicators
  • Momentum Indicators
  • Volume Indicators
  • Volatility Indicators

Trend indicators Indicate the market trend, whether to the upside or the downside, along with possible reversals and continuation confirmations.

 

The most common trend indicators are the moving average convergence divergence (MACD), Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, Moving Averages, and Parabolic Sar. Below are some examples of the different indicators:

 

 

MACD

 

Moving average convergence divergence indicato

Figure 4

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Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

 

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator

Figure 5

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Moving Averages are plotted by adding up a predefined set of data points based on a specific period and divided by the period time.

 

We have different equations for different sets of moving averages, such as the simple moving average, exponential moving average, smoother moving average, and linear weighted moving average.

 

To simplify the process, let’s use the simple moving average, which is mostly used to forecast longer-term trends.

 

Taking a look at the above figure (Figure 4) the moving averages used are the 50SMA (Blue Line), 100SMA (Orange Line), and the 200SMA (Black Line).

 

What we can analyze from this chart is that whenever the price is above all the moving averages, then the trend is very bullish.

 

Another bullish characteristic is that the smaller moving averages are above the larger moving averages. As we can see the 50 SMA is above the 100SMA which is also above the 200SMA. So as long as those characteristics are met this means that the trend is up.

 

Another thing to keep an eye on is the number of times the price tests the 50SMA while failing to breach it to the downside. This means that the price is surfing on this specific moving average which is currently acting as support.

 

 

Moving Averages

 

Moving Averages indicator

Figure 6

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Price action

Price action is the foundation of technical analysis. It is exclusively used by many traders around the world.

 

To simplify it, we should understand the supply and demand of the specific instrument we are analyzing

 

Demand zones (Support) are (Figure 7) are defined as areas where traders are stepping in, buying, and lifting prices higher. In other words, they are areas where demand comes in.

 

Supply zones (Resistance) are areas where traders are selling and pushing prices lower. In other words, supply is coming in around those areas or levels.

 

In a ranging market or if prices are moving between clear support and resistance, traders can benefit from both, buying and selling, depending on where the market is currently at.

Supply and demand zones

Figure 7

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When prices are testing a support line or a zone that has been tested more than once, this might give us buying opportunities. However, to further empower our decisions, extra confirmation might be needed.

 

On the other hand, if prices are testing clear resistance and strong supply zones, selling might be a good idea.

 

Another important price action element is the trendline. When trendlines, Demand/Supply zones, or Support/Resistances are combined, they create a clearer picture of market conditions.

 

Trendlines are plotted based on the direction of the price, whether it is upwards or downwards. Prices tend to move in either impulsive movements, or corrections.

 

Upward Trend

 

To identify an uptrend (Figure 8), we need two main elements: Higher Highs and higher lows.

 

In the case of increasing momentum, the price moves impulsively to the upside and then during the correction, it moves slightly to the downside. As long as the correction is not equal to the impulsive move, then prices will remain to the upside.

Higher Highs and Higher Lows

Figure 8

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Downward Trend

 

To highlight a downward trend(Figure 9), we need two main elements: Lower Highs and Lower Lows.

 

In the case of decreasing momentum, the price moves impulsively to the downside and then during the correction, it moves slightly to the upside. As long as the correction is not equal to the impulsive move, then prices will remain to the downside.

 

To trade the trends, we need to identify the market structure, as in where is the market standing at that specific point. To answer this question, we need to ask ourselves other questions. Is the overall trend up or down? Are we close to a support or resistance zone?

Lower Highs and Lower Lows

Figure 9

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Breakouts

 

In price breakouts, we are talking about the possibility of having a reversal. This means that if the price is moving up and a breakout of that trend occurs, this might mean that the price might be creating a new trend. We have multiple ways to trade breakouts.

 

  • Instant Execution
  • Retest After Breakout
  • Trend Confirmation

Instant Execution

 

Let’s look at an example of an (Figure 10) upward trend that witnesses a breakout. The instant execution breakout trading strategy will include selling once the trend is broken with one candle at a specified timeframe. The limitation of this strategy is the possibility of a fake breakout.

Upward trend with a breakout

Figure 10

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Retest After Breakout

 

We will look at the same example (Figure 11) but we will consider entering on the retest after the breakout. The limitation is that the retest might not occur

Retest after the breakout

Figure 11

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Trend Confirmation

 

The last scenario is to enter on the (Figure 12) downward trend confirmation, whereby the new trendline is formed. The limitation is that the trend might be impulsive and the price might decrease to new lows and will never give you a chance to enter at the price you want.

Downward trend confirmation

Figure 12

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Putting it together

As you can see, trading trendlines is simple yet it can be done through different ways. Some are safer but less likely to occur while others are riskier but provide more frequent opportunities.

 

To limit those probabilities or minimize the number of scenarios, further confirmations might be needed, such as indicators, and other chart patterns.

 

However, identifying the structure of the trend and location of the price compared to its previous position will help the trader in making informed decisions.

How Does The Commodities Market Work?

What Is a Commodity Market?

Similar to any other market around the world, the commodity market allows participants to buy or sell products that range from luxuries to everyday essentials. Many commodity centers exist around the world, facilitating trade between suppliers, manufacturers, speculators, and others.

Commodities are usually separated into two groups: Soft and hard commodities.

Soft commodities are mostly agricultural and are grown and harvested. They include popular and mainstream ones such as corn, wheat, sugar, soybeans. Another type of soft commodity includes livestock like pork and hogs. On the other hand, hard commodities are natural resources that are extracted from the earth and include gold, oil, natural gas, and copper.

Commodities can be broken down further into multiple categories in the following manner: (Figure 1)

Metals: Gold, Silver, Platinum, and others.
Energy: Crude Oil, Heating Oil, Natural Gas among others.

Agriculture: Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton, Sugar, and others.
Livestock and Meat: Hogs, Pork Bellies, and others.

 

Figure 1 - 2-Hour Chart of Gold, Crude Oil and Coffee
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How Commodity Markets Work

The commodity market allows a wide range of market participants to gain access to a centralized and liquid location that includes around 100 major products. Participants include outright suppliers and producers, focusing on obtaining or simply selling the commodity while others may be looking at it as a way to hedge against a certain exposure in the same product or another. Speculators and investors are also present in the commodities market, betting on a rise or fall in prices while others may hold commodities to protect their portfolio against adverse market conditions.

Certain commodities may act as a hedge against certain uncertainties such as inflationary expectations while a group or basket of commodities can also be useful in times of volatility given their tendency to move opposite of stocks.

Commodities prices are affected by a variety of factors that are fairly common across all other markets including supply & demand, Geopolitical tension, Central bank and interest rate decisions, Economic conditions, and many more. Specifically, for commodities, the supply & demand element is strong as many of the traded commodities are seasonal or affected by factors that could lead to disruptions of supply or demand.

 

 

Brief History of Commodity Markets

Historically, commodities date back thousands of years when tribes and older civilizations traded different products against each other including commodities, food, and other items. Technically speaking, it was the only way to pay for essentials and this practice continued into more recent history until currencies became a means to transact.

Trading in commodities was not available to everyone and required large sums of money, time, and the necessary expertise to be a market participant. With the advent of technology, trading commodities is something available for access to nearly all traders and investors and with plenty of ease.

One of the oldest and most popular exchanges is the Chicago Board of Trade. The CBOT started in 1848 and allowed for trading on agricultural commodities such as wheat and corn. This helped farmers and consumers manage risk by eliminating uncertainty in prices from the traded products. Today, the CBOT is one of the biggest in the world, offering options and futures on a wide range of products including commodities, interest rates, and equity indices.

 

Types of Commodity Markets

Commodities are available for trading in the spot markets or derivatives markets. The spot markets are known as physical or cash markets where buyers and sellers exchange commodities for instant delivery. On the other hand, the derivatives markets are made up of forwards, futures and options.

Forwards and futures are contracts that use the spot market as the underlying asset. Such products give the buyer control over the commodity in the future for a price decided up today. Given the speculative nature of online trading, most contracts are closed before expiry or rolled over as traders are not interested in taking delivery.

The main differences between the two are that futures are standardized and trade through an exchange while forwards are customizable and trade over the counter.
Trading commodities, similar to trading any other product is no longer a hassle thanks to online applications and quick deposit methods which could see traders up and connected to major financial centers in minutes.

Traders can trade commodities outright through the spot market or by trading the derivatives but they can also gain exposure to commodities through the stock market. For example, the stocks of mining companies fluctuate with the price movements of the actual commodities and could be used as a hedge or another form of exposure to certain products. ETFs, also known as Exchange Traded Funds can be commodities specific, investing in a basket of products, or can be centered around one commodity, thus, creating direct exposure to it.
For those who trade stocks exclusively, gaining exposure to commodities through stocks or ETFs is easier to manage than using derivatives such as futures and options.

 

Examples of Commodities Markets

There are dozens of commodities exchanges around the world but the majority are found in the US and more specifically, Chicago and New York. The Chicago Board of Trade is among the oldest and was established in 1848. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange trades a variety of commodities including cattle, lumber, lean hogs, and others.

In New York, the New York Board of Trade allows trading on Coffee, Cocoa, Orange Juice, Ethanol, and many more while the New York Mercantile Exchange provides trading on Oil, Gold, Silver, Platinum, (Figure 2), Electricity, and others.

Other centers include Kansas with the presence of the Kansas Board of Trade and Minneapolis where the Minneapolis Grain Exchange is found. Across the world, the London Metal Exchange is a major one across Europe while the Tokyo Commodity Exchange is fairly known across Asia.

While most exchanges and commodities trading, in general, takes place online and electronically, some exchanges still include a pit where the open outcry method is employed.

 

Figure 2 - 1-hour platinum char
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Commodity Market Regulation

The “CFTC” also known as the “Commodity Futures Trading Commission” regulates futures and options trading on commodities. It helps protect traders from fraud and misleading practices while promoting an efficient and transparent market. Other market centers are regulated by their respective jurisdictions but the CFTC is among the most popular ones as it regulates the top commodity exchanges across the US and which happens to be among the biggest in the world.

 

Commodity Market Trading vs. Stock Trading

In terms of similarities, whether you are trading stocks or commodities, they are both oriented towards Similar goals including making a profit or protecting against certain exposure. There are thousands of tradable stocks around the world, giving traders the ability to diversify further and have access to more opportunities while tradable commodities are nowhere near as numerous as stocks.

From a hedging perspective, commodities may prove very useful for those holding already established portfolios and looking to protect against potential downside brought upon by company, sector, or economic reasons. This is because commodities have historically moved opposite to stocks.

Whether it’s stocks or commodities, the market players are mostly similar and trading takes place electronically and throughout a large part of every day, 5 days per week.
Stocks may prove easier to buy and hold as their bouts of volatility are more limited and successful companies tend to grow with time, leading to higher prices through increased demand. On the other hand, commodities are prone to volatility and supply/demand disruption which could create powerful price swings over short periods.

The Parabolic SAR

J. Welles Wilder, the developer of the well-known and commonly used Relative strength index RSI leading indicator developed the parabolic stop and reverse indicator, commonly known as the "Parabolic SAR," or "PSAR" . The PSAR is a trend-following indicator, displayed as a single parabolic line (or dots) underneath the price bars in an uptrend, and above the price bars in a downtrend.

 

The PSAR’s primary functions are:

1- It demonstrates the current trend
2- Points potential entry signals
3- Points potential exit signals

 

The objective behind developing the PSAR is to find a trading system that maximizes profits from trend movements. The PSAR allows the trader to calculate both the beginning of a new trend and its end. The indicator can be used on any tradable instrument and on any timeframe.

PSAR on the chart


Fig (1) Source: developed by the author

 

Parabolic SAR calculation:

The PSAR indicator is already available on all price charting software, the calculation is done using algorithms for both uptrend and downtrend accordingly, Traders and analysts don’t need to calculate it themselves, the application will do the job for you however, it is beneficial that the indicator users grasp the concept.

 

- Uptrend: PSAR = Prior PSAR + Prior AF (Prior EP - Prior PSAR)
- Downtrend: PSAR = Prior PSAR - Prior AF (Prior PSAR - Prior EP)

 

Where:

 

- EP = Highest high for an uptrend and lowest low for a downtrend, updated each time a new EP is reached.
- AF = Default of 0.02, increasing by 0.02 each time a new EP is reached, with a maximum of 0.20. The AF factor can be changed on the trading terminal, however, Wilder and most traders using the indicator recommend sticking to the standard value of 0.2

 

Trading using Parabolic SAR ( PSAR):

As mentioned, the PSAR highly performs in trending markets. That said, it is important to first identify the trend. In an uptrend, dots will be under the price action and vice versa in a downtrend. When a change of trend occurs, dots flip from on side of the price action to the other side, “sell and reverse” SAR action.

 
PSAR dot flipping down


Fig (2) Source: developed by the author

PSAR flipping above the price action


Fig (3) Source: developed by the author

 

The best entry signal to maximize profits is when a change in trend takes place, in other words when the dots flip (the curve breaks) from one side to the other.

 

In fig (2), the trader waits for the close of the green candle under the black dot followed by the formation of the flipped dot under the following candle, that’s when s/he enters a long/bullish trade. Stop loss levels will be at the PSAR levels and traders should update their stop loss levels whenever the PSAR dots move (apply trailing stop).

 

The same technique applies when the trend reverses down. The trader patiently waits for the close of the candle under which lies the PSAR black dot, followed by flipping the dot to be above the following candle that’s when s/he enters a short/bearish trade. Stop loss levels will be at the PSAR levels and traders should update their stop loss levels whenever the PSAR dots move (apply trailing stop).

Given that a trend reversal is the main signal for a trader to enter the trade then, it would be used as a stop loss signal as well.

 

Combining moving averages and leading indicators with PSAR would add benefit to traders’ decisions regarding trend confirmation, and entry and exit signals.

 

As shown in the figure below fig (4), the PSAR provided an earlier entry signal on the price chart before the price crosses above the 20-exponential moving average (20EMA) and before the leading indicator, RSI crosses above the 50% range.

 

The PSAR also provided an earlier exit signal before prices crossed the 20EMA) and before the leading indicator, RSI crosses below the 50% range.

 

In the above case, the trader’s exit level depends on his entry point and risk appetite.

 
PSAR provided an earlier entry signal


Fig (4) Source: developed by the author

PSAR in a trading range / sideways


Fig (5) Source: developed by the author

 

The PSAR doesn’t perform well during sideways (flat) trading as it provides false misleading signals as shown in fig. (5). it is highly not recommended to use the PSAR in this case, other indicators like the Bollinger bands (BB) accompanied by leading indicators like the RSI would be beneficial while in a trading range/ sideways. Moreover, the PSAR demonstrates high sensitivity over small time frames, providing numerous enter/exit signals which might endure loss, wilder recommend utilizing the indicator for a 1-hour time frame and above.

 

Displaying and Setting the PSAR on Meta trader:

Display Parabolic SAR in MetaTrader 5


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Parabolic SAR settings in MetaTrader


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Pros and Cons of the PSAR:

Pros:

 

The indicator allows the trader to maintain his position within a trend as long as the PSAR dot is moving in the same direction adding, it indicates the strength of the developed trend through the distance between the PSAR dots. The wider the distance between the PSAR dots the more momentum is added to the trend.

 

The indicator provides few false signals and guides the trader on where to place the stop loss.

 

The Parabolic SAR insures not trading against the trend

 

Cons:

 

The PSAR doesn’t perform well during trading ranges/ sideway trading

 

On small timeframes, the indicator tends to demonstrate high sensitivity thus signaling false entry/exit levels. It is not recommended to be used for timeframes below 1 hour as stated by Welles Wilder the indicator developer.

 

The content published above has been prepared by CFI for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.  Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell.  The information provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it, and is not held out as independent investment research and may have been acted upon by persons connected with CFI.  Market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however, CFI makes no guarantee of its accuracy or completeness, and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. 

How To Trade Using The Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

Introduction

Technical Indicators is a mathematical formula calculated from price data to provide traders with some information that cannot be easily shown from pure prices like momentum and volatility. Indicators have two major classifications trend-following Moving averages and Bollinger Band and Oscillators like Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Stochastics.

 

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The Commodity Channel Index was first described by Donald lambert in the October 1980 Issue of commodities magazine. Lambert originally developed CCI to identify cyclical turns in commodities, but the indicator can be successfully applied to indices, ETFs, stocks, and other securities. The CCI formula creates a conveniently used number that statistically expresses how far recent prices have departed from a moving average. In this manner, CCI can be used to identify overbought and oversold levels.

 

Commodity Channel Index calculation

The CCI formula calculates a simple moving of average daily prices and then calculates the mean deviation. The mean deviation is the sum of the differences between each period’s average price and its simple moving average. The mean deviation is then multiplied by a constant 0.015 and divided into the difference between the simple moving average and today’s average price. The trader can vary the number of periods used to calculate the simple shortening of the time span makes the index faster and more responsive to small market movements while lengthening the time span slows down the index and smooths out the market volatility

 

1- Typical Price= (H+L+C)/3
2- 20 SMA of the Typical Price
3- Calculate the Mean Deviation of price from the 20 SMA MD= abs (TP1-20SMA) +(TP2-20SMA) + --------+ (TP20 – 20SMA)/20
4- CCI = (Today Typical Price – Today Moving average)/MD* 0.015

 

The CCI is displayed as an oscillator that ranges above or below the zero line as shown in figure 1. Since the index measures how far prices have diverged from a moving average. CCI allows us to measure the strength of the trend. The theory is that the higher the CCI value the stronger the trend.

 
The CCI ranges above or below the zero line

Figure 1
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Commodity Channel Index on the chart

Figure 2
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Trading with CCI

You cannot use the CCI signal alone without taking trend analysis into consideration because every market phase has a different trading characteristic. In an uptrend using CCI to time, the buy signal will always be the best CCI trading strategy, and in a downtrend using CCI to time the short signal.

 

How to trade using The CCI indicator in an uptrend?

During uptrend buyers always have control over price movement and the best trades are always around the end of the downward retracement where the best risk-reward is always so CCI can be used to time the entries.

 

In a strong uptrend, the CCI indicator will oscillate between the 100 level and zero level as shown in figure 3.

 

1- Buy signal is generated when breaking out level 100 and closing the position when the CCI moves below level 100 or the zero line. As shown in Figure 4.

 

2- Buy signal is generated when CCI breaks out the zero-line level but when it does not reach -100. Figure 5

 
The CCI indicator in the strong uptrend

Figure 3
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The CCI moves below level 100 or the zero line

Figure 4
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The CCI breaks out the zero-line level

Figure 5
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Figure 6
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Figure 7
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Figure 8
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In a normal uptrend, the CCI indicator will oscillate between the 100 level -100 level as shown in figure 10

Figure 9
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The CCI indicator and normal uptrend

Figure 10
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3- Buy signal is generated when breaking out level -100 as shown in figure 11.

The CCI breaking out level -100

Figure 11
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Figure 12
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How to trade using The CCI indicator in a downtrend?

During down sellers always have control over price movement and the best trades are always around the end of the upward retracement where the best risk-reward is always so CCI can be used to time the entries.

 

In a strong downtrend, the CCI indicator will oscillate between the -100 level and zero level as shown in figure 13.

The CCI indicator and strong downtrend

Figure 13
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1- A sell signal is generated when breaking down level -100 and closing the position when the CCI moves above level -100 or the zero line. As shown in Figure 14.

The sell signal and the CCI indicator

Figure 14
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2- A sell signal is generated when CCI breaks down the zero-line level but when it does not reach 100. Figure 15

CCI breaks down the zero-line level but doesn't rich 100

Figure 15
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Figure 16
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Figure 17
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In a normal downtrend, the CCI indicator will oscillate between the 100 level and -100 level as shown in figure 18.

 
Normal downtrend and the CCI indicator

Figure 18
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3- A sell signal is generated when breaking down level 100 as shown in figure 20.

 

Figure 19
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The CCI breaks down level 100

Figure 20
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Overbought and Oversold zones

Identifying overbought and oversold levels can be tricky with the Commodity Channel Index (CCI), or any other momentum oscillator for that matter. First, CCI is an unbound oscillator. Theoretically, there are no upside or downside limits. This makes an overbought or oversold assessment subjective. Second, securities can continue moving higher after an indicator becomes overbought. Likewise, securities can continue moving lower after an indicator becomes oversold.

 

Overbought or oversold levels are not fixed since the indicator is unbound. Therefore, traders look at past readings on the indicator to get a sense of where the price reversed. For one stock, it may tend to reverse near +200 and -150. Another commodity, meanwhile, may tend to reverse near +325 and -350. Zoom out on the chart to see lots of price reversal points, and the CCI readings at those times.

 

Divergence using CCI Indicator

Most of the time the CCI indicator follows the price movement, but when it does not, we call this a Divergence which indicates a weakness in the current trend.

 

There are two types of divergence:

 

1-Positive Divergence
It occurs when the price makes a lower low but the indicator makes a higher low, which means the current seller is exhausted and loses momentum and a correction might occur.

 

2-Negative Divergence
It occurs when the price makes a higher high but the indicator makes a lower high, it means the current buyer is exhausted and loses momentum and correction might occur as shown in figure 21

Divergence types

Figure 21
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The content published above has been prepared by CFI for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.  Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell.  The information provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it, and is not held out as independent investment research and may have been acted upon by persons connected with CFI.  Market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however, CFI makes no guarantee of its accuracy or completeness, and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. 

How To Trade Using Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

Introduction

The Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) timing model become one of the most popular technical tools, used by short- and longer-term investors in the stock, bond, and other investment markets. It is a featured indicator on virtually every computer-based technical trading program and trading platform.

 

MACD can be used in the analysis of longer-term trends. It can be applied to somewhat shorter time periods, reflected perhaps by weekly or daily data, in the analysis of intermediate- and shorter-term market trends. It can be applied on an intraday basis for time frames as short as hours or minutes, which makes it suitable for short-term day-trading purposes. The indicator is frequently capable of producing precise entry and exit signals: One of its strongest features is its ability to detect the conclusions of favorable market entry junctures following serious intermediate market declines

 

The Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) Component’s

1-MACD line: the difference between the fast-moving average and the slow-moving average
2-Signal line: is a moving average of the MACD line to signal changes in the price momentum
3-Histogram: shows the difference between the MACD line and the signal line

 

MACD line = 12-Period EMA − 26-Period EMA

Signal line = 9-day EMA of MACD line

MACD histogram = MACD line – signal line

MACD and Signal lines

Figure 1
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What length moving averages should be employed for MACD?

There are no hard and fast rules. As a general rule, the longer-term moving average will be two to three times the length of the shorter-term average. The shorter the shorter-term average is, the more sensitive the MACD will be too short-term market fluctuations. The 12-26 combination shown in Figure 1 is widely employed but is hardly the only possibility.

 

1- MACD Line and the zero level
The line is the difference between the fast-moving average and the slow-moving average so when the MACD line moves above the zero line that means the faster-moving average (12 EMA) crosses above the slower-moving average (26 EMA) indicating bulls gaining momentum over sellers. When the MACD line moves above the zero line it is a bullish signal and when the line moves below the zero line it is a bearish signal.

MACD Line and the zero level


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MACD on British Pound / US Dollar chart


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MACD on GPB / JPY chart


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2- MACD line and Signal line Crossover
When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, then it is a bullish signal, When the MACD line crosses below the signal line, then a bearish signal is determined. The bullish signal is more significant when it is above the zero line, and the bearish signal is more significant when it occurs below the zero line.

 
MACD line and signal line crossover


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MACD on British Pound / Japanese Yen chart


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MACD and signal line on Euro / Japanese Yen chart


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MACD and signal line on US dollar / Pesos chart


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MACD signals are more likely to prove reliable if shorter-term MACD signals are confirmed by longer-term trends in the stock market, perhaps reflected by long-term MACD patterns. For example, purchases made based on daily MACD lines are more likely to succeed if weekly or monthly MACD patterns are favorable, indicating strength in the primary market cycle. Short-term short sales are more likely to prove profitable if longer-term market trends are down. The maintenance of multiple MACD charts, reflecting the varying length of a market cycle, is recommended.

 

Histogram

It shows the difference between the MACD line and the signal line. When the histogram moves above the zero line means the MACD line cross above the signal line, and when it moves below the zero line means the MACD line moves below the signal line.

 

When the MACD line and Signal line diverge the histogram moves to higher values indicating strong momentum. Traders should compare the histogram peaks and bottom with prices to determine the health of the current trend.

Histogram


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Divergence

Divergence as a general term in trading can be defined as when an oscillator or momentum indicator does not confirm the direction of the current price movement. MACD divergence is the same. It is when the price moves in one direction and the MACD moves in the opposite direction.

 

1- Positive Divergence

It occurs when the price makes a lower low but the indicator makes a higher low, which means the current seller is exhausted and loses momentum and a correction might occur.

 

2- Negative Divergence

It occurs when the price makes a higher high but the indicator makes a lower high, it means the current buyer is exhausted and loses momentum and correction might occur.

Divergence types


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The MACD indicator has two types of divergence:

1-The divergence between the price and MACD line
When prices make a higher high but the MACD line makes a lower high this is called negative divergence. When prices make a lower low but the MACD line makes a higher low this is called positive divergence.

 
MACD Positive Divergence

Positive Divergence
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MACD Negative Divergence

Negative Divergence
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2- The divergence between the MACD line and Histogram

 

1- Bearish Divergence

When the MACD line makes a higher high while the Histogram makes a lower higher. This indicates a weakness in the current upward movement.

 
Bearish Divergence


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Bearish Divergence on Euro / US dollar chart


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Bearish Divergence on Euro / Japanese Yen chart


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2- Bullish Divergence

When the MACD line makes a lower low while the Histogram makes a higher low. This indicates a weakness in the current downward movement.

 
Bullish divergence on the chart


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Bullish divergence Euro / USD chart


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Bullish divergence on Euro / USD chart


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The content published above has been prepared by CFI for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.  Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell.  The information provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it, and is not held out as independent investment research and may have been acted upon by persons connected with CFI.  Market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however, CFI makes no guarantee of its accuracy or completeness, and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients.

What Is An Income Statement?

An income statement also called a Profit and loss account (P&L) is a financial statement that shows the company’s revenues from sales, expenditures, and profits over a specific time. In simple words, it explains how the company's net revenue is converted into net earnings whether profits or losses giving insights into the financial health of a business, and it is a keystone for strategic planning, budgeting, financial forecast, and investment decision-making. It is prepared on a monthly, quarterly, semi-annually, and/ or annual basis.

Example of an income statement

Example of an income statement| Source: The Bank for Canadian Entrepreneurs (BDC
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How to read an income statement?

The revenues part shows the company’s earnings from selling its products and services only. The cost of goods sold (COGS) part denotes the direct costs of production, then gross profit is calculated by subtracting COGC from revenues to show the amount of revenue available to cover operational expenses and compensate shareholders. Selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) shows all other indirect expenses related to the general operations of the business including rent, marketing, office supplies, etc. Operating income is the remaining amount after subtracting the SG&A expenses from the gross profit. Interest Expense shows the costs of the firm’s borrowings. The Non-operating income shows the gains and losses from non-core activities such as an increase in the value of an asset, or income from selling an asset, or a loss such as the cost of settlement of a consumer lawsuit. The Earnings before taxes (EBT) or also called income before taxes (IBT), is the remaining cash after deducting all costs and losses from all gains and revenues. Since businesses pay taxes at various rates based on their region, EBT is frequently used as a profitability measure. And finally, the Net income or also called Net Profit is the remaining amount for the shareholders after deducting taxes, interest, depreciation, and amortization. Statement of income could also include Basic and/or Diluted Net income per share which indicates how much the company’s income was allocated to each share of common stock, and the difference between both the basic and diluted is that diluted EPS takes into account all convertible securities[ An investment that can be transformed from its original form into another is referred to as a convertible security. Convertible bonds and preferred shares that can be converted into common stock are the two most well-known forms of convertible securities. A convertible security defines the requirements and conversion price and pays a certain amount on a regular basis (a coupon payment for convertible bonds and a preferred dividend for convertible preferred shares).] while basic EPS takes into account only a company’s common share. The Diluted EPS encompasses a broader view of potential per-share profitability.

 
Basic EPS =  
Net Income - Preferred Dividends
Weighted Average of Outstanding Shares
 
Diluted EPS =  
Net Income + Convertible Preferred Dividends + Debt Interest
Weighted Average of Outstanding Shares + Convertible Securities
 

A rise in basic EPS can cause a stock's price to increase in tandem with the company's rising earnings per share because stocks trade on multiples of earnings per share. However, an increase in basic EPS does not necessarily translate into an increase in the company's gross earnings. Businesses have the option to repurchase shares, which lowers their overall share count and allows them to distribute net income less preferred dividends over fewer common shares. Even if absolute earnings decline due to a decline in the number of common shares outstanding, basic EPS may rise. The difference between basic and diluted EPS is another factor to take into account. The likelihood of future dilution of current common shareholders may be considered if the two EPS measurements diverge more and more over time.

How do we analyze an income statement?

There are two ways to analyze a financial statement: vertical and horizontal analysis. Vertical analysis is comparing each item to revenues as a percentage, while horizontal analysis is calculating the percentage change of each item on a year-over-year basis.

 
YoYΔ  
n-(n-1)
n-1
*100  
 

An investment that can be transformed from its original form into another is referred to as a convertible security. Convertible bonds and preferred shares that can be converted into common stock are the two most well-known forms of convertible securities. A convertible security defines the requirements and conversion price and pays a certain amount on a regular basis (a coupon payment for convertible bonds and a preferred dividend for convertible preferred shares).

For example, looking at Coca-Cola Co.’s (KO) income statement for the Quarter that ended on June 1st, 2022, we could see that the Cost of goods sold (COGS) in Q2 2022 is $4.83 bn compared to $3.787 bn in Q2 2021. If we are conducting a vertical analysis we would show that COGS in Q2 2022 is 42.64 % of the total revenues, while it was 37.3% of the revenues in Q2 2021. However, if we were horizontally analyzing the statement, we would show that COGS increased by 12% y-o-y in Q2 2022 compared to Q2 2021, as seen below.

 

An investor can understand what makes a company profitable by knowing the income and expense components of the statement. If a company saw a significant gain in revenue during the period under consideration while simultaneously managing its spending side of the business. This is a sign of effective management. Understanding fundamental analysis assists in choose between potential investments.

Coca-Cola Co.’s (KO) income statement

Table 1.2
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The content published above has been prepared by CFI for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.  Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell.  The information provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it, and is not held out as independent investment research and may have been acted upon by persons connected with CFI.  Market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however, CFI makes no guarantee of its accuracy or completeness, and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients.